Let’s get this party started! As always, anything goes (presuming kindness and generosity of spirit), but here’s a question to get us started: What do you see headed our way in 2024? A year from now, what do you think we’ll be looking back at from the previous 12 months?
I miss not just his appearances on Tangentially Speaking, but also used to enjoy listening to his podcast, Nervous Rex.
I know he's had some big movie roles in recent years, and so is maybe busy promoting those and relishing in the success.
Regardless, I would love to hear what that guy has to say these days. His and Chris' friendship seemed like one that would hold true through Simon's recent stardom, so I hope Chris might be able to get him on TS soon!
I was just chatting with Simon this morning about the 9ers game (he's a fan of SF). He's doing well. Working a lot. Doing movies with Al Pacino and other big stars. His life has taken a strange turn. He's super busy, so I haven't asked him to be on again, but I'm sure he'd be down next time he's got some free time. Stardom hasn't gone to his head.
I just wanted to drop a note because… I don’t know anywhere that would understand.
Chris, you have talked about the loneliness of travel and more poignant, how people perceive you back home when you have all these adventures and are living a true life.
I left my teaching job in Canada to teach abroad and I had a few people that were very supportive and happy but I had a lot of people that were to the point of hostile of my life choice… Sorry to ramble (I’m high) but tomorrow I’m leaving to go ski in Japan and then to the Philippines to do a silent retreat and scuba dive. Things I’ve always dreamt of but I feel guilty, I feel not worthy of even being able to do this. This community and this podcast is the guiding light that lets me know that when you have opportunities you have to take them and the vital importance of following your gut and most importantly, that’s it’s ok to do what’s best for you.
I guess I want to say thank you Chris and thank you Tangentialist’s!
I’m curious to hear what this audience thinks about the future direction and trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war. My girlfriend is Ukrainian living here in the US. Her ex-husband and father of her two children, who lives in Kyiv still, was recently summoned to join the military in an active combat role, so she is obviously upset about this. And by extension, I am too.
It saddens me with the knowledge that the US (the effective parent company of Ukraine, if you will) is almost certainly more interested in sustaining this war rather than offering Russia an exit strategy and reaching some sort of diplomatic compromise to end it.
But perhaps someone who has been following the developments of the war can offer me a more optimistic future outlook...
A lot of changes this year surrounding AI, elections, data privacy laws, TikTok, remote work, etc. I don't know what exactly will come towards the end of the year, but it's coming.
I'm pretty bummed about GTA 6 being delayed until 2025. Been waiting on that one for a while!
I feel like I am in the best time of my life with a lot of great information and tools available at the tip of my fingers. I'm free from the corporate space and on day 44 of my sobriety journey. I took a short alcoholic journey in 2023 and ended up in a detox center around the end of 2023. During the last 6 weeks, I've been able to gain a better understanding of myself, a reframing of many aspects of traumatic experiences of my life to allow me to move forward in a positive way vs. allowing my past experiences to destroy me.
I get a second chance at life through new eyes in 2024. I am here for this!!!
Preferably near the water and a beach! I can Google this stuff I know but I trust word of mouth recommendations even more. Especially from fellow tangentialists ❤️
Just discovered this four-year-old article, which provides fascinating detail about the Tongan boys shipwrecked on a desert island related in "Civilized to Death".
Very excited to be viewing it in Maine - hoping for good weather, but taking time with friends and family to view it from the wilderness regardless. Come see it in Jackman, Houlton, or Baxter State Park!
Lots of political thoughts in the air. The thing I see happening in 2024 is the continued rise of the power and usefulness of AI. This has many positives and equally some negatives
The least talked negative I see mentioned is the increased power usage of this tech.
They can't make enough power hungry GPUs/specific processing units to fuel the current demand. At one point do we see AI adding a good percentage to the worlds power usage, but hey we get funny photos and saves us from searching the net so much
I predict continued division of our country with the possibility of a type of gorilla civil war starting. Likely take the form of bombings and other forms of terrorism. I put more people will begin to realize that we have got to return to small farming and community living, that we will recognize the importance of connection, pleasure, service, nature, and the simpler things in life. I think people will start turning away from, the insane consumption of material goods and experiences. I think ethical non-monogamy will become more widespread, as well, the use of psychedelics and other mind altering substances. We will start to recognize the value of getting back into our bodies and into nature.
Hi, more people wanting to be in a trusted closed discussion community like this. Ai really making things move into a different experience of life, content, communication to therapy. Changes in the music world and gaming continuing to grow into a lifestyle. A significant amount of people going off line. More independent food producers please! Art finding new ways of commentary.
Politics is a game show at the level most people experience it, decisions are made long before things happen.
Bull run on crypto, if you are into that sort of thing.
Just based on the post below, "fascism coming to a world near you"... reaffirms my assumptions that we will continue to dig deeper into our respective trenches. Where TJ sees far right parties gaining power world wide, others see local populations rebelling against globalism... the consolidation of power and wealth into the hands of elites who despise sovereign nations. Sovereign nations that put their people first take profits away from multinational corporations. I hope to see more of that, more populism. And I think we will, but we will also see more fascism. The real kind, but in the form of propaganda, censorship, quiet coups, etc. I think Trump would win an election but the likelihood of him being on the ballot against Biden is slim to none. If Trump makes it on the ballot, then Biden will be replaced with another Democrat. Or the conflict in the middle east could broaden and US gets pulled in, and the election is postponed? All I am certain of is that the powers that be will not let Trump back in.
I do not think the post below affirms digging into one's trench unless you want to read it like that. I read it as an expression of an opinion and of a concern.
Perhaps he's seeing local populations rebelling against globalist thru far right parties gaining power world wide?
Yes, the ruling elite in the US is determined to keep Trump off the ballot. Not that he would ever change a thing (he didn't when he was in, he was a good boy) but he's badly off-message & it scares them.
Saying that "sovereign nations" take better care of people is just another way of saying Small is Beautiful. No "global agenda" can ever be beneficial to most people. If there are problems that can be tackled only on a global scale, well they'll never get tackled, since the combined might of global capital won't allow it.
"propaganda, censorship, quiet coups, etc"
Right, these present aspects of fascism, & we've seen industrial-strength examples of all three in recent years.
Trump to get back in. In the wise words of George Bush “ere's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.”
I predict that I get my van project finished this spring, bunch of cruising around the motherland of Finland during summer while working, meeting friends and recreating social connections. Towards the end of the year, I will likely end my stress-free, easy but not fullfilling job to hit the road for a half a year at least.
I don’t know what will happen with the world. Hopefully more and more people are finding our similtaneous existence here preciouss enough to not waste time in degrading social media arguments or get riled up over political issues they can’t affect. I remind myself often with: Attend to the part of the garden you can touch.
I am old enough to remember a world inspired by John and Robert Kennedy and their genuine integrity ,intelligence and peaceful goodwill.I had been inspired by Robert Jnr and ,believed,like many others ,that he embodied the same qualities as his father and uncle ......Until I heard his implausible defence of Israel and,vification of the Palestinians -- on Breaking Point under the focused ,undistracted questioning of Krystal ........my faith in his integrity at that point evaporated ......if he has not been completely sold out to the Jewish lobby,then he is inexcusably misinformed .....Anyone needing a wake up to the reality of that conflict needs to Listen to Professor Norman Finklestein -- the son of Holocaust survivors who has no illusions about the reality of Israel’s brazen,hypocritical,duplicitous intentions .
So my hope is that such informed ,courageous and honest voices as Finklestein,.......Joe Rogan,Russell Brand ,Chris Ryan,Lex Fridman ,Andrew Huberman ,and others will continue to encourage hope for less toxic tribalism and more of the sense and goodwill Robert Kennedy Jnr had initially generated, --- a recognition that our commonality and goodwill exceeds our differences ...even if they are real ,but,mostly insignificant ...or often just ,imagined ......there is still hope that a better world can prevail....maybe if Chat GBT is on our side.......john keegan
Not quite old enough to remember John and Robert but I was a latchkey kid in the 70's. What I did learn is a healthy cynicism on bullshit artists and con people at an early age. I, like a lot of people in my generation have trouble trusting authority figures in general. What seems to be real is probably fake to some degree. Need to take a listen to the Breaking Points with Junior.
I suppose I’m one of the few people who think that while Trump would win in a landslide against Biden this time around, the powers that be (specifically the military industrial complex) Don’t want Trump messing with their free lunch. I think they have so much influence that the Supreme Court will uphold 14th amendment issues blocking Trump from the various ballots.
If Biden doesn’t make it to the finish line, the owners (large corporations) will select another property manager who tows the line
What makes you think he would win in a landslide? Trump already lost once, albeit by fairly small margins in several crucial swing states but 2022 was a red trickle when it should have been a tsunami if history is any indicator. I'd wager the gains made by Democrats on the heels of SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade will carry Democrats to an easy win and then some.
You are correct, my error. Polls show a very different story from last election, but I don't think he gets tarred just enough from the various legal problems and Biden wins since everyone else is blocked out. Hoping for anybody but Biden but the owners like him, he toes the line
I hope you’re right, but Trump is currently winning in all 4 battleground states, and as hard as it is to believe (again) Trump could very well lose the popular vote and win the electoral college. Again.
Continued deglobalization, and the re-election of Donald Trump. I don't think moderates will stop him this time, as it was COVID and record numbers of people not being at work that drove up the vote to barely defeat Trump the first time. Never underestimate the democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory through complacency. End of 2024, the collective dissonance, tension, and social panic will be pervasive especially in the media, making 2020s "oh shit" moment look quaint.
I think Trump will almost certainly be back in if Biden doesn’t drop out. A lot of liberals are stirred up over Biden’s continued support of Israel—e.g., bypassing Congress for arms sales, twice now—during a genocide that’s happening in real time in front of all of our eyes (on social media). I’m used to seeing Biden critiques from the Left, and of course the Right, but it’s the more mainstream liberal media comments that have surprised me a bit.
My vote is that we'll see a reaction to the increasing scoldiness of the past few years, with people getting exhausted with the overreach of DEI, #metoo, shrill demands for LGBTQ legislation on one hand, and on the other, massive voter turnout to deny office to extremists on the right who think they should control women's health care, cut school lunch programs, reduce Social Security, and so on. In other words, the sane moderates reassert their control to whatever extent possible.
Consciously or not, people are tired of temper tantrums and reactionary political rhetoric. A lot of the youngest adults want direction and leadership from a place of pragmatic sanity because they were raised on getting media jammed into their eyeballs for the last decade, and have watched everyone scream and yell and generally make fools of themselves with technology. They may not have a lot of personal life experience but because of the volume of information they have piped in they can smell bullshit from a mile away, and are willing to call it out, no matter what party/belief system is affected or where the chips fall. They are the proverbial canary in the coal mine of public sentiment, writ large.
Did a human make that and does it matter? These questions will be in everything a year from now, if they aren't already. I read that by the end of 2025, 96% of Internet content could be AI generated.
Maybe it's just me, but I feel that due to the massive acceleration in uptake of AI, and the ever-pervasive nature of social media, people are going to start backing away from digital media. Of course there have been small migrations and public figures stepping off of social media, but I just feel that as everything gets so much more complex and insidious (AI really leading the charge here, how is the everyday person supposed to comprehend the vast implications of this technology?), more and more people will gradually just quit.
Hopefully: In the UK a change of government. In the US A not a change of government! Reduction of greenhouse gasses globally. People starting to listen more and be more 'reasonable' with each other. Dictatorial regimes crumble and implode under global and local approbium.
Upbeat assessment I realise. But we can all start leaning that way - right?
Whenever I am hoping, if you may even call it that, for something similar, I try to remember that in January 1989 nobody would have expected the Berlin Wall to fall in November. The Eastern Block to crumble within, what?, 2 years and Apartheid to vanish from South Africa. Everything more or less without violence.
It may seem ironic posting this on substack but I'm hoping more people turn away from social media for their information. I think the ad driven revenue model is just terrible for society in general and would like to see a collective move against it but until people decide to stop engaging with the largest social media sites or we change the laws to force the companies to work more in the interest of society, then we're going to continue down this path and it's only going to get darker unfortunately.
I'm not Chris Ryan if that was your impression. Unfortunately it's not easy, but basically everyone has to challenge their ideas. One thing that I rarely hear is ask yourself how you may be wrong as statistically it's much easier to be wrong on a subject than not, most likely you're wrong about pretty much everything to some degree which isn't much help but if you can figure out which ways your logic is flawed it can help tremendously determining what's bullshit. I can give you a few that are absolutely garbage: Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Jimmy Dore, Tim Pool and Russell Brand they're all pretty much wrong about everything these days and it's a waste of time trying to parse what's true in their mountains of bullshit.
Yes, that most definitely WAS my impression. sorry
Sure, a prof at university (way back when people still read newspapers) always said to us: Never read your own opinion — basically the same advice.
But then I wonder how You reached Your conclusions about the individuals you list
Never heard of Tim Pool. Don't take Jimmy Dore & Russel Brand too seriously.
But if you're going to say that Glenn Greenwald & Matt Taibbi are "absolute garbage" & "pretty much wrong about everything these days" & write "bullshit" — you're rather obliging yourself to point out, with precision, why you think that.
Otherwise your's is just another bullshit opinion dissing two journalists who write things you Disagree with.
I'll just remind you that both Greenwald & Taibbi made journalistic heretics of themselves by saying Russiagate was horseshit since Where is the Evidence? And lo, Russiagate turned out to be evidence-free horseshit that the mainstream media got wrong.
Can you explain how they were "wrong" about that??
— Major terrorist attack in the US prompted by Gaza war (if not 2024 then 2025).
— Julian Assange is extradited.
— The Great Acceleration (end of empire & climatic disasters, & all the other calamities those two will trigger).
— Shrinking ability to pretend the mounting "extreme weather events" around us aren't happening.
— Growing impact of those events on food production, thus fuelling further inflation at the very least, & possibly sudden, catastrophic shortages (bound to happen one year soon).
— Dangerous flailing by the US as its global hegemony slips through its fingers. Expect increase in boneheaded military adventures (as if we haven't seen enough already).
— Electoral success for protest parties (aka "populist", "far-right", whatever) spreads throughout the West.
— Biden either (1) dies or (2) drops out [possibly in disgrace; see Hunter] in a manner well timed to garner sympathy/relief votes.
— Ever more desperate action by Dem-friendly judiciary to jail Trump, do >anything< to keep him off the ballot.
— dunno: Catboy Hitler? your local post office closes? hoolahoop craze returns? Annalena Baerbock runs amok with an automatic weapon?
As to the food prediction, we produce more food than ever, way more than we need, half of all food is thrown in landfills in the US; food shortages won't be an issue for a long time unless we have much much larger global catastrophes on the order of asteroid impact.
What makes you think the US is losing power globally? We're still the largest military by a large factor and still the top country that people want to migrate to, the American dream is still alive and well.
Biden has the best doctors on earth at his disposal, if you don't think they can keep him alive for even a year I don't know what to tell you.
I'm definitely detecting a theme here and I feel like I can almost perfectly predict where you're getting your "news" from, it's extremely biased against reality my friend.
Do you think Democrats want Trump off the ballot because he violated the 14th amendment or because they're afraid of him as a political candidate? I guarantee you Democrats would love to have Trump on the ballot because the reality is that Trump is Trump's largest vulnerability, If he's convicted before 2024, and it's increasingly likely that he will in at least one if not several cases, millions of Republican voters will simply sit out the election in protest which will lead to MASSIVE down ballot losses for the GOP. State house races that were out of reach could easily be flipped to Democrats and the obsession with banning abortion is going to cost the GOP the Senate and it might cost them a couple of seats they didn't think they could lose (Rick Scott in FL; Ted Cruz in FL; possibly even Hawley in MO but wouldn't bet on it).
Yes, the US — with those 2 splendid oceans either side, rich soil, huge, conveniently located waterways for cheap transport, its own oil & gas — has always been exceptionally well endowed by geography. But I'm not just talking USA.
I live in Europe, where the situation is more alarming — food prices in the UK rose over 9% in 2023; food consumption in France has plummeted the last couple of years; Russian & Ukrainian fertilizers are no longer reaching the West; Ukrainian wheat exports, on which Middle East countries are dependent, have dropped, etc. Food is beginning to get scarce in the damnedest places.
The kneebone is connected to the thighbone, eh? Everything is interconnected. Hungry people are angry people (see riots in France this past summer).
I predict that food will be a growing problem, eventually in North America as well (depending on the weather). So shoot me; that's what I predict.
"We're still the largest military by a large factor"
All the "easy" wars now lie in the past. The US Navy last week backed down in a Red Sea standoff with the Houthis (a rebel group!! in freaking Yemen!!) & slunk off with its bloated military tail between its legs, whereupon Italy, Spain & France did their own slinking, out of the US coalition. Quite a pink ear for Washington. And what were the Americans going to do, nuke Yemen? This, the Gaza war, the ascendancy of the BRICS, etc, are eroding US power/influence (hard & soft) with dizzying speed. All the F-16s & HIMARS in the world won't save Zelensky (dead, but too dumb to lie down). It's been one humiliation after the other this past year (& humiliation can be extremely dangerous for world peace).
Of course the US will remain top dog in the Americas. But even there the Monroe Doctrine is starting to lose it lustre.
"if you don't think they can keep (Biden) alive for even a year I don't know what to tell you"
Joe may skid on a banana peel of some description — dead before his doctors can save him. Hell, he's an old man after all. If the ruling elite decides his continued life poses a danger to them, he's toast (see JFK). Suppose he gets a charismatic running mate & then, tragically, pops his garters next October. Surprise! Sympathy-vote avalanche & the Dems win.
Alternatively, there could be well-timed Major Leaks about Biden family business dealings in Ukraine & China. Then Joe has to resign in disgrace in time for Newsom or some other electable candidate to be nominated. The elite shakes its head in feigned shock & all problems can henceforth be blamed on Jibberish Joe.
"extremely biased against reality my friend"
Outrage at insurrection or fear? The Dems FEAR Trump.
Yes, I'm afraid I don't believe there was anything like an insurrection. There was a riot (probably incited by the FBI) in which rioting dumbasses were escorted into the Capitol by police (sorry Chis, but there's now ample video of this occurring) where they vied to out-dumbass each other on the House floor.
The Dems have been trying to stop Trump by judicial means ever since 2016. What do you think the whole Russiagate hoax was intended to do? It was meant to get Trump out of office & keep him out.
When Russiagate flopped, they switched to January 6th (another Pearl Harbor! another 911!)
There's also the trifling matter of due process & presumption of innocence (tiresome though these notions can be). Having signally failed to prove a damn thing Russiagate-wise, they've now cranked up a similar Dem panic over Jan6th. God forbid that it should ever come to trial, since torrential rain would fall on the Dem parade.
"Democrats would love to have Trump on the ballot because the reality is that Trump is Trump's largest vulnerability"
Well everybody assumed exactly that in 2016, didn't they? How could an uncouth vulgarian like this possibly get elected? And when he did, well it had to be the wicked machinations of Vladimir Putin that had brought it about.
Rest assured, I think Trump is a frightful bonehead. But he's also a sophisticated political operative, as he keeps proving. If the Dems aren't dead-scared of the guy, why all these trials & threats of trials?
If DemCentral were rooting for Donald, Jan6 would likely never have happened, or been a non-event. And Trump wouldn't be facing a barrage of charges in court. They'd bend over Backwards to -ensure- he was on the ballot.
"If he's convicted before 2024, and it's increasingly likely that he will in at least one if not several cases"
Faith in the institutions governing society is crumbling across the Western world. MAGA types will know he's been convicted of uhh.. trumped-up charges, & the BlueAnon types will just Know that justice has been done. US society will split further than ever.
So, Trump had damned well better be wrenched off the ballot somehow, right? Because a straight race between him & Biden must make Dem blood run cold — too many deplorables around by a long shot.
Yeah, the dominoes could fall in the manner you describe. But how confident are you? As confident as we all were that Hillary would prevail in 2016?
You're so full of right-wing propaganda that it's honestly not even possible to start to address all the things wrong with your diatribe but one glaring example where you're literally 180 degrees from the truth: Russia's interference in 2016 is WELL documented, it's no hoax and only people that would call it a hoax are devoid of any facts whatsoever, you, just like them, are parroting propaganda. The bi-partisan Senate Intelligence Committee released over 1,300 pages of reports ( https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-releases-volume-5-bipartisan-russia-report) describing all the connections to Trump's campaign and Russian intelligence. Trump has been compromised by Russian money for decades, you clearly don't know the first thing about it from your talking points and it's obvious you're in an information silo because this isn't secret information.
You need to start asking yourself how you're wrong and challenging all the information that you're citing because it's completely biased and it's clear you're viewing things through a narrative that's been crafted to lead you astray from the truth.
As for Trump, I personally hope he's on the ballot because the GOP shouldn't be so easy to dump him but I also believe the 14th amendment is clear, he's not qualified to hold any office.
Guys. Maybe this isn't the place for these already tired political arguments? I'm not concerned with who's right or wrong, just that the ruts are so well worn by now that there's really nothing new that's going to come from doing the old dance again.
I agree in principle but people are so isolated from reality I'm not sure this guy has ever had anyone tell him otherwise about Russia or where he could get that information but I'll knock it off for Uncle Chris :P
This year's election will be interesting to watch play out. I don't have a dog in the fight and rather not play in games in which the outcome has already been decided. I am new in the volunteerism/anarchism camp coming from a very staunch believer in voting 3rd party as a protest to the system as it is, in my estimation a uniparty with counter talking points to give the impression of right vs left, however, it's very much "them" and "us". A person wains this up much better than I is Larken Rose, and would recommend watching the Jones Plantation when it's full release is announced ( end of this month Jan 2024) After years of participation in local government and always feeling let down it finally dawned on me that the system is working exactly as intended, and a large part of that is having the likes of me and others who genuinely care and are willing to work for their community/cause busy with menial busy work to keep us occupied and oblivious to the fact that the work is nearly always in vain with strategic wins here and then for optics and continuing adherence to the system. Here is a great video that sums up my new political philosophy 🧐https://youtu.be/DfU8HQrogpI?si=XoNdltT9lUloXgG3
We all have a dog in this fight whether you want to acknowledge it or not. We're teetering on the edge of autocracy; one party is using every legal and illegal means possible to determine the future of this country's political outcomes by extracting voters entirely from the equation. Republicans by and large were all too happy to install a dictator on January 6th, nothing has changed since. If you believe both parties are equally bad then you're not paying attention. Of course you could pick out evidence of corruption in the Democrats, but the scope and scale of the corruption is grade school level compared to the Republicans' endless bludgeoning of democracy by attacking voting itself, to claim without evidence that votes were stolen or rigged, to purport that Trump is the only person that can "fix" anything. The Democrats are the only party that could possibly overturn Citizens United...do I know for sure they will? I do not, but I know for a fact that Republicans would never give up unlimited dark money because it allows them to stay in power and that's all that matters to minoritarians. Most voters don't agree with the Republican policy if you look at opinion polls, but only like half of all eligible voters even vote, this directly benefits Republicans which are anti-democratic at this point. Throwing your vote to a third party is literally, not figuratively, literally a vote against continuing the longest running democracy in known history. If you want anarchy, move to Argentina and let me know how that works out for you.
I am currently in Baja for the winter, I will be back in the SLV for spring summer to continue working on my farm and it will be time to figure out what to do after that next fall about election time. This is how I am choosing to live my life, helping those that I can and refusing to play the game that has you so fired up, again, I don't care which jackboot is on my neck, just that there is a boot on my neck period. I have a lot of friends down in South America from Colombia to Patagonia, and I will certainly be listening to what they have to say, the way things are going here (the US) the financial sector is perilous at best and this farce of a free market capitalist economy is looking more and more like we are headed the way of the Weimar Republic and more recently Venezuela. I do 100% agree that if we expect ANYTHING, to change in our political system, 2 things need to happen immediately, money out of the elections and term limits, I think we both know neither party is going to go down that path.
I mean, if you think Democrats are jack booted thugs, we're simply not living on the same planet or plane of existence. What makes you think the strongest economy in the world with the world's reserve currency is going the way of the Weimar republic? We literally weathered inflation better than any country on earth. I agree there are massive changes that must be made, but simply throwing away your civic duty to support anarchism is an abdication of duty in my mind. Real change takes time and it takes consistent effort, we have the system we have because we allow it through apathy and ignorance. I'm mostly getting apathy from you, that's exactly what Republicans thrive on and the reason why real change cannot be made. Until the GOP is completely out of power at a federal level, nothing CAN change, but you're throwing your vote to a third candidate for what? It's cutting off your nose to spite your face behavior and until that stops and disaffected voters like yourself actually give their voice to national politics, nothing will change.
It's obvious that we are indeed living in different realities. Had you actually read my comment you would know exactly what I have done and where I stand. I am not shirking my civic responsibility as I actually participated in that farce which is far more than most can say, and yes democrats too are jackboots. Watch the video I posted, Larken is far more effective at explaining the voluntarism position than I.
Without a significant change in the federal governments overreach and intrusion into daily life the USA won’t exist by 2050. This can happen slowly and in a controlled manner it it could happen in a quick and dirty way. It’s not a matter of if but when this breakup will occur without this change. IMHO.
Nothing specific ~ depends on what state you live in. In California it may be being too restrictive on abortion or not restrictive on gun control and vice versa in Alabama. The spirit of what I’m saying is that what “made america great” (lord have mercy on my soul for that reference) was the disparate opinions on all things while finding common ground on basic moral principles. Now EVERYTHING is either/or, pick a team, or everyone who disagrees with you is a Nazi or a Commie. Seeking greater autonomy as close to the local level and respectfully agreeing, disagreeing, or agreeing to disagree are what will “save” the current iteration of the USA. I’m not making a case for the status quo or returning to aArticles of Confederation (although it IS my favorite “founding” document. It starts with people just being more reasonable and open to others ideas imho.
Ok. Roe V Wade literally legalized abortion FEDERALLY. Now that this was overturned, states are codifying abortion as legal or illegal in their state. The answer from the federal govt…
At some point either an individual state or group of states will find its relationship with the federal government untenable and choose to (try) and dissolve the relationship as it currently exists.
My state tried that once. Federal troops laid waste to it and it took 100 years to recover. Not sure people here would want to try that again.
My complaint with US the federal government is that it doesn't do enough. The right wing has won the propaganda war over the last 50 years and convinced people that government is bad and business is good. I won't try to defend this here but a great book on the subject is Norma Orestes "The Big Myth". There is no law of the universe that says government is always bad or that big government is always bad. Our problem in the US now is how we elect our leaders. They give us bad (dysfunctional) government. Our two-party winner-take-all system is giving us unqualified extremists. The have no interest in creating good government, only destroying it. A poorly functioning government serves their interests. I think smart people recognize this and I'm encouraged by some green shoots around the nation such as those fighting gerrymandering and promoting things like ranked choice voting. I do think we'll eventually get these improvements - unless Trump gets elected and then all bets are off.
As for my predictions (and they are worth what you are paying for them) is that Biden will win and Trump will be fighting his legal problems until he dies. Nikki Haley will be our first female President in 2028 (unless the Dems can come up with better candidates than they have now). The hot war in the Middle East will subside but the undercurrents will remain and worsen until the whole region comes up with a solution and the US uses its clout to make Israel accept it. The entire Arab "street", and most of the world for that matter, sympathize with the Palestinians (not necessarily Hamas). Ignoring their plight is causing the west increasingly serious harm.
Ukraine and Russia both want the war to end and I predict a ceasefire that becomes more or less permanent. Ukraine doesn't want to give up the 20% of their land they've lost but the west won't support them indefinitely and they'll have no choice.
Absent a major climate crisis, we'll continue to muddle along in our planet-destroying ways. Kim Stanley Robinson had it right - only when 10,000 people die of a heat wave in India (or some similar event) will the developed world be moved to seriously act.
Most importantly, Taylor Swift and Kelce Travis will break up and NFL viewership will fall 20%.
I now need to go walk my dog and stop thinking about these things.
Which states would those be? Most states that would be tempted to do that would literally be throwing away billions of dollars in federal money and don't have developed enough economies to support themselves even if in coalition with several others.
I feel like you are making a lot of assumptions about the financial system that may or may not be true over the next 26 years i.e. the hegemonic nature of the US dollar, the value of natural resources, unforeseen geopolitical alliances, etc. I feel that a financial crisis of some like will likely play a part in the eventual dissolution of the American empire
Does anyone else miss Simon Rex?
I miss not just his appearances on Tangentially Speaking, but also used to enjoy listening to his podcast, Nervous Rex.
I know he's had some big movie roles in recent years, and so is maybe busy promoting those and relishing in the success.
Regardless, I would love to hear what that guy has to say these days. His and Chris' friendship seemed like one that would hold true through Simon's recent stardom, so I hope Chris might be able to get him on TS soon!
I was just chatting with Simon this morning about the 9ers game (he's a fan of SF). He's doing well. Working a lot. Doing movies with Al Pacino and other big stars. His life has taken a strange turn. He's super busy, so I haven't asked him to be on again, but I'm sure he'd be down next time he's got some free time. Stardom hasn't gone to his head.
Hey Tangentalist’s
I just wanted to drop a note because… I don’t know anywhere that would understand.
Chris, you have talked about the loneliness of travel and more poignant, how people perceive you back home when you have all these adventures and are living a true life.
I left my teaching job in Canada to teach abroad and I had a few people that were very supportive and happy but I had a lot of people that were to the point of hostile of my life choice… Sorry to ramble (I’m high) but tomorrow I’m leaving to go ski in Japan and then to the Philippines to do a silent retreat and scuba dive. Things I’ve always dreamt of but I feel guilty, I feel not worthy of even being able to do this. This community and this podcast is the guiding light that lets me know that when you have opportunities you have to take them and the vital importance of following your gut and most importantly, that’s it’s ok to do what’s best for you.
I guess I want to say thank you Chris and thank you Tangentialist’s!
I’m curious to hear what this audience thinks about the future direction and trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war. My girlfriend is Ukrainian living here in the US. Her ex-husband and father of her two children, who lives in Kyiv still, was recently summoned to join the military in an active combat role, so she is obviously upset about this. And by extension, I am too.
It saddens me with the knowledge that the US (the effective parent company of Ukraine, if you will) is almost certainly more interested in sustaining this war rather than offering Russia an exit strategy and reaching some sort of diplomatic compromise to end it.
But perhaps someone who has been following the developments of the war can offer me a more optimistic future outlook...
A Trump victory, followed by WW3
(I'm available for kids' parties and bar mitzvahs)
A lot of changes this year surrounding AI, elections, data privacy laws, TikTok, remote work, etc. I don't know what exactly will come towards the end of the year, but it's coming.
I'm pretty bummed about GTA 6 being delayed until 2025. Been waiting on that one for a while!
I feel like I am in the best time of my life with a lot of great information and tools available at the tip of my fingers. I'm free from the corporate space and on day 44 of my sobriety journey. I took a short alcoholic journey in 2023 and ended up in a detox center around the end of 2023. During the last 6 weeks, I've been able to gain a better understanding of myself, a reframing of many aspects of traumatic experiences of my life to allow me to move forward in a positive way vs. allowing my past experiences to destroy me.
I get a second chance at life through new eyes in 2024. I am here for this!!!
Personally I’m looking forward to the Chris Ryan acoustic guitar solo album. That delicious voice and emotional string accompaniment surely awaits!
Hey folks, does anyone know of any beautiful restaurants in the Phuket area of Thailand that could host 80 people? 🙏
Preferably near the water and a beach! I can Google this stuff I know but I trust word of mouth recommendations even more. Especially from fellow tangentialists ❤️
Just discovered this four-year-old article, which provides fascinating detail about the Tongan boys shipwrecked on a desert island related in "Civilized to Death".
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/09/the-real-lord-of-the-flies-what-happened-when-six-boys-were-shipwrecked-for-15-months
Hey Folks—Who’s doing what for the total eclipse coming to the US on April 8?
Very excited to be viewing it in Maine - hoping for good weather, but taking time with friends and family to view it from the wilderness regardless. Come see it in Jackman, Houlton, or Baxter State Park!
Lots of political thoughts in the air. The thing I see happening in 2024 is the continued rise of the power and usefulness of AI. This has many positives and equally some negatives
The least talked negative I see mentioned is the increased power usage of this tech.
They can't make enough power hungry GPUs/specific processing units to fuel the current demand. At one point do we see AI adding a good percentage to the worlds power usage, but hey we get funny photos and saves us from searching the net so much
I predict continued division of our country with the possibility of a type of gorilla civil war starting. Likely take the form of bombings and other forms of terrorism. I put more people will begin to realize that we have got to return to small farming and community living, that we will recognize the importance of connection, pleasure, service, nature, and the simpler things in life. I think people will start turning away from, the insane consumption of material goods and experiences. I think ethical non-monogamy will become more widespread, as well, the use of psychedelics and other mind altering substances. We will start to recognize the value of getting back into our bodies and into nature.
Amidst the predictions of food shortages and the world burning down/washing away, is anyone else attending AVN show in Vegas later this month?
Hi, more people wanting to be in a trusted closed discussion community like this. Ai really making things move into a different experience of life, content, communication to therapy. Changes in the music world and gaming continuing to grow into a lifestyle. A significant amount of people going off line. More independent food producers please! Art finding new ways of commentary.
Politics is a game show at the level most people experience it, decisions are made long before things happen.
Bull run on crypto, if you are into that sort of thing.
Just some wild intuitive guessing! Thanks
Just based on the post below, "fascism coming to a world near you"... reaffirms my assumptions that we will continue to dig deeper into our respective trenches. Where TJ sees far right parties gaining power world wide, others see local populations rebelling against globalism... the consolidation of power and wealth into the hands of elites who despise sovereign nations. Sovereign nations that put their people first take profits away from multinational corporations. I hope to see more of that, more populism. And I think we will, but we will also see more fascism. The real kind, but in the form of propaganda, censorship, quiet coups, etc. I think Trump would win an election but the likelihood of him being on the ballot against Biden is slim to none. If Trump makes it on the ballot, then Biden will be replaced with another Democrat. Or the conflict in the middle east could broaden and US gets pulled in, and the election is postponed? All I am certain of is that the powers that be will not let Trump back in.
I do not think the post below affirms digging into one's trench unless you want to read it like that. I read it as an expression of an opinion and of a concern.
Perhaps he's seeing local populations rebelling against globalist thru far right parties gaining power world wide?
Yes, the ruling elite in the US is determined to keep Trump off the ballot. Not that he would ever change a thing (he didn't when he was in, he was a good boy) but he's badly off-message & it scares them.
Saying that "sovereign nations" take better care of people is just another way of saying Small is Beautiful. No "global agenda" can ever be beneficial to most people. If there are problems that can be tackled only on a global scale, well they'll never get tackled, since the combined might of global capital won't allow it.
"propaganda, censorship, quiet coups, etc"
Right, these present aspects of fascism, & we've seen industrial-strength examples of all three in recent years.
Fascism is coming to a world near you. Far right parties world wide are gaining power. Israel are behaving in ways reminiscent of Nazism.
Fascism is capitalism is decay - Vladimir lenin
Only more idiocy can maintain such insanity.
Trump to get back in. In the wise words of George Bush “ere's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.”
Now watch this shot!
I predict that I get my van project finished this spring, bunch of cruising around the motherland of Finland during summer while working, meeting friends and recreating social connections. Towards the end of the year, I will likely end my stress-free, easy but not fullfilling job to hit the road for a half a year at least.
I don’t know what will happen with the world. Hopefully more and more people are finding our similtaneous existence here preciouss enough to not waste time in degrading social media arguments or get riled up over political issues they can’t affect. I remind myself often with: Attend to the part of the garden you can touch.
I am old enough to remember a world inspired by John and Robert Kennedy and their genuine integrity ,intelligence and peaceful goodwill.I had been inspired by Robert Jnr and ,believed,like many others ,that he embodied the same qualities as his father and uncle ......Until I heard his implausible defence of Israel and,vification of the Palestinians -- on Breaking Point under the focused ,undistracted questioning of Krystal ........my faith in his integrity at that point evaporated ......if he has not been completely sold out to the Jewish lobby,then he is inexcusably misinformed .....Anyone needing a wake up to the reality of that conflict needs to Listen to Professor Norman Finklestein -- the son of Holocaust survivors who has no illusions about the reality of Israel’s brazen,hypocritical,duplicitous intentions .
So my hope is that such informed ,courageous and honest voices as Finklestein,.......Joe Rogan,Russell Brand ,Chris Ryan,Lex Fridman ,Andrew Huberman ,and others will continue to encourage hope for less toxic tribalism and more of the sense and goodwill Robert Kennedy Jnr had initially generated, --- a recognition that our commonality and goodwill exceeds our differences ...even if they are real ,but,mostly insignificant ...or often just ,imagined ......there is still hope that a better world can prevail....maybe if Chat GBT is on our side.......john keegan
I was very saddened that he took that stance, but I still feel he is the best option for us and my whole heartly support 90% of his positions
John,
Not quite old enough to remember John and Robert but I was a latchkey kid in the 70's. What I did learn is a healthy cynicism on bullshit artists and con people at an early age. I, like a lot of people in my generation have trouble trusting authority figures in general. What seems to be real is probably fake to some degree. Need to take a listen to the Breaking Points with Junior.
These 150 some names on this Jeffrey Epstein list will be released. Some of us will be astonished why nobody cared about who was on that list.
I suppose I’m one of the few people who think that while Trump would win in a landslide against Biden this time around, the powers that be (specifically the military industrial complex) Don’t want Trump messing with their free lunch. I think they have so much influence that the Supreme Court will uphold 14th amendment issues blocking Trump from the various ballots.
If Biden doesn’t make it to the finish line, the owners (large corporations) will select another property manager who tows the line
What makes you think he would win in a landslide? Trump already lost once, albeit by fairly small margins in several crucial swing states but 2022 was a red trickle when it should have been a tsunami if history is any indicator. I'd wager the gains made by Democrats on the heels of SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade will carry Democrats to an easy win and then some.
Also, it's "toe the line" not "tow the line" FYI.
You are correct, my error. Polls show a very different story from last election, but I don't think he gets tarred just enough from the various legal problems and Biden wins since everyone else is blocked out. Hoping for anybody but Biden but the owners like him, he toes the line
I hope you’re right, but Trump is currently winning in all 4 battleground states, and as hard as it is to believe (again) Trump could very well lose the popular vote and win the electoral college. Again.
Continued deglobalization, and the re-election of Donald Trump. I don't think moderates will stop him this time, as it was COVID and record numbers of people not being at work that drove up the vote to barely defeat Trump the first time. Never underestimate the democrats ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory through complacency. End of 2024, the collective dissonance, tension, and social panic will be pervasive especially in the media, making 2020s "oh shit" moment look quaint.
I think Trump will almost certainly be back in if Biden doesn’t drop out. A lot of liberals are stirred up over Biden’s continued support of Israel—e.g., bypassing Congress for arms sales, twice now—during a genocide that’s happening in real time in front of all of our eyes (on social media). I’m used to seeing Biden critiques from the Left, and of course the Right, but it’s the more mainstream liberal media comments that have surprised me a bit.
I will be annoyed by the massive over-reporting on American election campaign in our media.
My vote is that we'll see a reaction to the increasing scoldiness of the past few years, with people getting exhausted with the overreach of DEI, #metoo, shrill demands for LGBTQ legislation on one hand, and on the other, massive voter turnout to deny office to extremists on the right who think they should control women's health care, cut school lunch programs, reduce Social Security, and so on. In other words, the sane moderates reassert their control to whatever extent possible.
Consciously or not, people are tired of temper tantrums and reactionary political rhetoric. A lot of the youngest adults want direction and leadership from a place of pragmatic sanity because they were raised on getting media jammed into their eyeballs for the last decade, and have watched everyone scream and yell and generally make fools of themselves with technology. They may not have a lot of personal life experience but because of the volume of information they have piped in they can smell bullshit from a mile away, and are willing to call it out, no matter what party/belief system is affected or where the chips fall. They are the proverbial canary in the coal mine of public sentiment, writ large.
What makes you believe that?
Did a human make that and does it matter? These questions will be in everything a year from now, if they aren't already. I read that by the end of 2025, 96% of Internet content could be AI generated.
Maybe it's just me, but I feel that due to the massive acceleration in uptake of AI, and the ever-pervasive nature of social media, people are going to start backing away from digital media. Of course there have been small migrations and public figures stepping off of social media, but I just feel that as everything gets so much more complex and insidious (AI really leading the charge here, how is the everyday person supposed to comprehend the vast implications of this technology?), more and more people will gradually just quit.
What exactly do you mean by “digital media”?
All social media, YouTube, streaming services, apps, etc.
Hopefully: In the UK a change of government. In the US A not a change of government! Reduction of greenhouse gasses globally. People starting to listen more and be more 'reasonable' with each other. Dictatorial regimes crumble and implode under global and local approbium.
Upbeat assessment I realise. But we can all start leaning that way - right?
Whenever I am hoping, if you may even call it that, for something similar, I try to remember that in January 1989 nobody would have expected the Berlin Wall to fall in November. The Eastern Block to crumble within, what?, 2 years and Apartheid to vanish from South Africa. Everything more or less without violence.
Without violence?!!
It may seem ironic posting this on substack but I'm hoping more people turn away from social media for their information. I think the ad driven revenue model is just terrible for society in general and would like to see a collective move against it but until people decide to stop engaging with the largest social media sites or we change the laws to force the companies to work more in the interest of society, then we're going to continue down this path and it's only going to get darker unfortunately.
Where should we get info? Not from Mainline Media, whose credibility lies in tatters.
I got to know of you through social media. How to know which Substack account is good & which garbage. Life is short.
I'm not Chris Ryan if that was your impression. Unfortunately it's not easy, but basically everyone has to challenge their ideas. One thing that I rarely hear is ask yourself how you may be wrong as statistically it's much easier to be wrong on a subject than not, most likely you're wrong about pretty much everything to some degree which isn't much help but if you can figure out which ways your logic is flawed it can help tremendously determining what's bullshit. I can give you a few that are absolutely garbage: Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Jimmy Dore, Tim Pool and Russell Brand they're all pretty much wrong about everything these days and it's a waste of time trying to parse what's true in their mountains of bullshit.
Yes, that most definitely WAS my impression. sorry
Sure, a prof at university (way back when people still read newspapers) always said to us: Never read your own opinion — basically the same advice.
But then I wonder how You reached Your conclusions about the individuals you list
Never heard of Tim Pool. Don't take Jimmy Dore & Russel Brand too seriously.
But if you're going to say that Glenn Greenwald & Matt Taibbi are "absolute garbage" & "pretty much wrong about everything these days" & write "bullshit" — you're rather obliging yourself to point out, with precision, why you think that.
Otherwise your's is just another bullshit opinion dissing two journalists who write things you Disagree with.
I'll just remind you that both Greenwald & Taibbi made journalistic heretics of themselves by saying Russiagate was horseshit since Where is the Evidence? And lo, Russiagate turned out to be evidence-free horseshit that the mainstream media got wrong.
Can you explain how they were "wrong" about that??
Off topic but has anyone know any Dj’s who can play weddings in Thailand? (Phuket) 💿🎶 thanks in advance!
— Major terrorist attack in the US prompted by Gaza war (if not 2024 then 2025).
— Julian Assange is extradited.
— The Great Acceleration (end of empire & climatic disasters, & all the other calamities those two will trigger).
— Shrinking ability to pretend the mounting "extreme weather events" around us aren't happening.
— Growing impact of those events on food production, thus fuelling further inflation at the very least, & possibly sudden, catastrophic shortages (bound to happen one year soon).
— Dangerous flailing by the US as its global hegemony slips through its fingers. Expect increase in boneheaded military adventures (as if we haven't seen enough already).
— Electoral success for protest parties (aka "populist", "far-right", whatever) spreads throughout the West.
— Biden either (1) dies or (2) drops out [possibly in disgrace; see Hunter] in a manner well timed to garner sympathy/relief votes.
— Ever more desperate action by Dem-friendly judiciary to jail Trump, do >anything< to keep him off the ballot.
— dunno: Catboy Hitler? your local post office closes? hoolahoop craze returns? Annalena Baerbock runs amok with an automatic weapon?
Sounds plausibel. Except for Baerbock. Warmongers don't fight themselves.
I can only respond to a few but here we go:
As to the food prediction, we produce more food than ever, way more than we need, half of all food is thrown in landfills in the US; food shortages won't be an issue for a long time unless we have much much larger global catastrophes on the order of asteroid impact.
What makes you think the US is losing power globally? We're still the largest military by a large factor and still the top country that people want to migrate to, the American dream is still alive and well.
Biden has the best doctors on earth at his disposal, if you don't think they can keep him alive for even a year I don't know what to tell you.
I'm definitely detecting a theme here and I feel like I can almost perfectly predict where you're getting your "news" from, it's extremely biased against reality my friend.
Do you think Democrats want Trump off the ballot because he violated the 14th amendment or because they're afraid of him as a political candidate? I guarantee you Democrats would love to have Trump on the ballot because the reality is that Trump is Trump's largest vulnerability, If he's convicted before 2024, and it's increasingly likely that he will in at least one if not several cases, millions of Republican voters will simply sit out the election in protest which will lead to MASSIVE down ballot losses for the GOP. State house races that were out of reach could easily be flipped to Democrats and the obsession with banning abortion is going to cost the GOP the Senate and it might cost them a couple of seats they didn't think they could lose (Rick Scott in FL; Ted Cruz in FL; possibly even Hawley in MO but wouldn't bet on it).
Yes, the US — with those 2 splendid oceans either side, rich soil, huge, conveniently located waterways for cheap transport, its own oil & gas — has always been exceptionally well endowed by geography. But I'm not just talking USA.
I live in Europe, where the situation is more alarming — food prices in the UK rose over 9% in 2023; food consumption in France has plummeted the last couple of years; Russian & Ukrainian fertilizers are no longer reaching the West; Ukrainian wheat exports, on which Middle East countries are dependent, have dropped, etc. Food is beginning to get scarce in the damnedest places.
The kneebone is connected to the thighbone, eh? Everything is interconnected. Hungry people are angry people (see riots in France this past summer).
I predict that food will be a growing problem, eventually in North America as well (depending on the weather). So shoot me; that's what I predict.
"We're still the largest military by a large factor"
All the "easy" wars now lie in the past. The US Navy last week backed down in a Red Sea standoff with the Houthis (a rebel group!! in freaking Yemen!!) & slunk off with its bloated military tail between its legs, whereupon Italy, Spain & France did their own slinking, out of the US coalition. Quite a pink ear for Washington. And what were the Americans going to do, nuke Yemen? This, the Gaza war, the ascendancy of the BRICS, etc, are eroding US power/influence (hard & soft) with dizzying speed. All the F-16s & HIMARS in the world won't save Zelensky (dead, but too dumb to lie down). It's been one humiliation after the other this past year (& humiliation can be extremely dangerous for world peace).
Of course the US will remain top dog in the Americas. But even there the Monroe Doctrine is starting to lose it lustre.
"if you don't think they can keep (Biden) alive for even a year I don't know what to tell you"
Joe may skid on a banana peel of some description — dead before his doctors can save him. Hell, he's an old man after all. If the ruling elite decides his continued life poses a danger to them, he's toast (see JFK). Suppose he gets a charismatic running mate & then, tragically, pops his garters next October. Surprise! Sympathy-vote avalanche & the Dems win.
Alternatively, there could be well-timed Major Leaks about Biden family business dealings in Ukraine & China. Then Joe has to resign in disgrace in time for Newsom or some other electable candidate to be nominated. The elite shakes its head in feigned shock & all problems can henceforth be blamed on Jibberish Joe.
"extremely biased against reality my friend"
Outrage at insurrection or fear? The Dems FEAR Trump.
Yes, I'm afraid I don't believe there was anything like an insurrection. There was a riot (probably incited by the FBI) in which rioting dumbasses were escorted into the Capitol by police (sorry Chis, but there's now ample video of this occurring) where they vied to out-dumbass each other on the House floor.
The Dems have been trying to stop Trump by judicial means ever since 2016. What do you think the whole Russiagate hoax was intended to do? It was meant to get Trump out of office & keep him out.
When Russiagate flopped, they switched to January 6th (another Pearl Harbor! another 911!)
There's also the trifling matter of due process & presumption of innocence (tiresome though these notions can be). Having signally failed to prove a damn thing Russiagate-wise, they've now cranked up a similar Dem panic over Jan6th. God forbid that it should ever come to trial, since torrential rain would fall on the Dem parade.
"Democrats would love to have Trump on the ballot because the reality is that Trump is Trump's largest vulnerability"
Well everybody assumed exactly that in 2016, didn't they? How could an uncouth vulgarian like this possibly get elected? And when he did, well it had to be the wicked machinations of Vladimir Putin that had brought it about.
Rest assured, I think Trump is a frightful bonehead. But he's also a sophisticated political operative, as he keeps proving. If the Dems aren't dead-scared of the guy, why all these trials & threats of trials?
If DemCentral were rooting for Donald, Jan6 would likely never have happened, or been a non-event. And Trump wouldn't be facing a barrage of charges in court. They'd bend over Backwards to -ensure- he was on the ballot.
"If he's convicted before 2024, and it's increasingly likely that he will in at least one if not several cases"
Faith in the institutions governing society is crumbling across the Western world. MAGA types will know he's been convicted of uhh.. trumped-up charges, & the BlueAnon types will just Know that justice has been done. US society will split further than ever.
So, Trump had damned well better be wrenched off the ballot somehow, right? Because a straight race between him & Biden must make Dem blood run cold — too many deplorables around by a long shot.
Yeah, the dominoes could fall in the manner you describe. But how confident are you? As confident as we all were that Hillary would prevail in 2016?
I dunno....
You're so full of right-wing propaganda that it's honestly not even possible to start to address all the things wrong with your diatribe but one glaring example where you're literally 180 degrees from the truth: Russia's interference in 2016 is WELL documented, it's no hoax and only people that would call it a hoax are devoid of any facts whatsoever, you, just like them, are parroting propaganda. The bi-partisan Senate Intelligence Committee released over 1,300 pages of reports ( https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-releases-volume-5-bipartisan-russia-report) describing all the connections to Trump's campaign and Russian intelligence. Trump has been compromised by Russian money for decades, you clearly don't know the first thing about it from your talking points and it's obvious you're in an information silo because this isn't secret information.
You need to start asking yourself how you're wrong and challenging all the information that you're citing because it's completely biased and it's clear you're viewing things through a narrative that's been crafted to lead you astray from the truth.
As for Trump, I personally hope he's on the ballot because the GOP shouldn't be so easy to dump him but I also believe the 14th amendment is clear, he's not qualified to hold any office.
Guys. Maybe this isn't the place for these already tired political arguments? I'm not concerned with who's right or wrong, just that the ruts are so well worn by now that there's really nothing new that's going to come from doing the old dance again.
"these already tired political arguments"
No opinions will be changed, true. But here's someone convinced he has an iron-grip on "reality". That's simply too smug to ignore.
Pity — I had a zinger of a reply all ready. That's life.
I agree in principle but people are so isolated from reality I'm not sure this guy has ever had anyone tell him otherwise about Russia or where he could get that information but I'll knock it off for Uncle Chris :P
I'm going to wager that the lead up to
This year's election will be interesting to watch play out. I don't have a dog in the fight and rather not play in games in which the outcome has already been decided. I am new in the volunteerism/anarchism camp coming from a very staunch believer in voting 3rd party as a protest to the system as it is, in my estimation a uniparty with counter talking points to give the impression of right vs left, however, it's very much "them" and "us". A person wains this up much better than I is Larken Rose, and would recommend watching the Jones Plantation when it's full release is announced ( end of this month Jan 2024) After years of participation in local government and always feeling let down it finally dawned on me that the system is working exactly as intended, and a large part of that is having the likes of me and others who genuinely care and are willing to work for their community/cause busy with menial busy work to keep us occupied and oblivious to the fact that the work is nearly always in vain with strategic wins here and then for optics and continuing adherence to the system. Here is a great video that sums up my new political philosophy 🧐https://youtu.be/DfU8HQrogpI?si=XoNdltT9lUloXgG3
We all have a dog in this fight whether you want to acknowledge it or not. We're teetering on the edge of autocracy; one party is using every legal and illegal means possible to determine the future of this country's political outcomes by extracting voters entirely from the equation. Republicans by and large were all too happy to install a dictator on January 6th, nothing has changed since. If you believe both parties are equally bad then you're not paying attention. Of course you could pick out evidence of corruption in the Democrats, but the scope and scale of the corruption is grade school level compared to the Republicans' endless bludgeoning of democracy by attacking voting itself, to claim without evidence that votes were stolen or rigged, to purport that Trump is the only person that can "fix" anything. The Democrats are the only party that could possibly overturn Citizens United...do I know for sure they will? I do not, but I know for a fact that Republicans would never give up unlimited dark money because it allows them to stay in power and that's all that matters to minoritarians. Most voters don't agree with the Republican policy if you look at opinion polls, but only like half of all eligible voters even vote, this directly benefits Republicans which are anti-democratic at this point. Throwing your vote to a third party is literally, not figuratively, literally a vote against continuing the longest running democracy in known history. If you want anarchy, move to Argentina and let me know how that works out for you.
I am currently in Baja for the winter, I will be back in the SLV for spring summer to continue working on my farm and it will be time to figure out what to do after that next fall about election time. This is how I am choosing to live my life, helping those that I can and refusing to play the game that has you so fired up, again, I don't care which jackboot is on my neck, just that there is a boot on my neck period. I have a lot of friends down in South America from Colombia to Patagonia, and I will certainly be listening to what they have to say, the way things are going here (the US) the financial sector is perilous at best and this farce of a free market capitalist economy is looking more and more like we are headed the way of the Weimar Republic and more recently Venezuela. I do 100% agree that if we expect ANYTHING, to change in our political system, 2 things need to happen immediately, money out of the elections and term limits, I think we both know neither party is going to go down that path.
I mean, if you think Democrats are jack booted thugs, we're simply not living on the same planet or plane of existence. What makes you think the strongest economy in the world with the world's reserve currency is going the way of the Weimar republic? We literally weathered inflation better than any country on earth. I agree there are massive changes that must be made, but simply throwing away your civic duty to support anarchism is an abdication of duty in my mind. Real change takes time and it takes consistent effort, we have the system we have because we allow it through apathy and ignorance. I'm mostly getting apathy from you, that's exactly what Republicans thrive on and the reason why real change cannot be made. Until the GOP is completely out of power at a federal level, nothing CAN change, but you're throwing your vote to a third candidate for what? It's cutting off your nose to spite your face behavior and until that stops and disaffected voters like yourself actually give their voice to national politics, nothing will change.
It's obvious that we are indeed living in different realities. Had you actually read my comment you would know exactly what I have done and where I stand. I am not shirking my civic responsibility as I actually participated in that farce which is far more than most can say, and yes democrats too are jackboots. Watch the video I posted, Larken is far more effective at explaining the voluntarism position than I.
Without a significant change in the federal governments overreach and intrusion into daily life the USA won’t exist by 2050. This can happen slowly and in a controlled manner it it could happen in a quick and dirty way. It’s not a matter of if but when this breakup will occur without this change. IMHO.
What are some examples of these intrusions? Taxes? Abortion? Vaccines? Requiring shirts and shoes in restaurants?
Nothing specific ~ depends on what state you live in. In California it may be being too restrictive on abortion or not restrictive on gun control and vice versa in Alabama. The spirit of what I’m saying is that what “made america great” (lord have mercy on my soul for that reference) was the disparate opinions on all things while finding common ground on basic moral principles. Now EVERYTHING is either/or, pick a team, or everyone who disagrees with you is a Nazi or a Commie. Seeking greater autonomy as close to the local level and respectfully agreeing, disagreeing, or agreeing to disagree are what will “save” the current iteration of the USA. I’m not making a case for the status quo or returning to aArticles of Confederation (although it IS my favorite “founding” document. It starts with people just being more reasonable and open to others ideas imho.
But abortion is an issue that is being left up to the states, so how is this an example of the federal government's intrusion?
Ok. Roe V Wade literally legalized abortion FEDERALLY. Now that this was overturned, states are codifying abortion as legal or illegal in their state. The answer from the federal govt…
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/23/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-highlights-commitment-to-defending-reproductive-rights-and-actions-to-protect-access-to-reproductive-health-care-one-year-after-overturning-of-roe-v-wade/
Are you suggesting that executive orders like this are going to be the downfall of the United States? If so, how exactly?
No I’m not. I’m suggesting that abortion is not an issue “left up to the states”.
And how would these intrusions cause the US to not exist, exactly?
At some point either an individual state or group of states will find its relationship with the federal government untenable and choose to (try) and dissolve the relationship as it currently exists.
My state tried that once. Federal troops laid waste to it and it took 100 years to recover. Not sure people here would want to try that again.
My complaint with US the federal government is that it doesn't do enough. The right wing has won the propaganda war over the last 50 years and convinced people that government is bad and business is good. I won't try to defend this here but a great book on the subject is Norma Orestes "The Big Myth". There is no law of the universe that says government is always bad or that big government is always bad. Our problem in the US now is how we elect our leaders. They give us bad (dysfunctional) government. Our two-party winner-take-all system is giving us unqualified extremists. The have no interest in creating good government, only destroying it. A poorly functioning government serves their interests. I think smart people recognize this and I'm encouraged by some green shoots around the nation such as those fighting gerrymandering and promoting things like ranked choice voting. I do think we'll eventually get these improvements - unless Trump gets elected and then all bets are off.
As for my predictions (and they are worth what you are paying for them) is that Biden will win and Trump will be fighting his legal problems until he dies. Nikki Haley will be our first female President in 2028 (unless the Dems can come up with better candidates than they have now). The hot war in the Middle East will subside but the undercurrents will remain and worsen until the whole region comes up with a solution and the US uses its clout to make Israel accept it. The entire Arab "street", and most of the world for that matter, sympathize with the Palestinians (not necessarily Hamas). Ignoring their plight is causing the west increasingly serious harm.
Ukraine and Russia both want the war to end and I predict a ceasefire that becomes more or less permanent. Ukraine doesn't want to give up the 20% of their land they've lost but the west won't support them indefinitely and they'll have no choice.
Absent a major climate crisis, we'll continue to muddle along in our planet-destroying ways. Kim Stanley Robinson had it right - only when 10,000 people die of a heat wave in India (or some similar event) will the developed world be moved to seriously act.
Most importantly, Taylor Swift and Kelce Travis will break up and NFL viewership will fall 20%.
I now need to go walk my dog and stop thinking about these things.
Which states would those be? Most states that would be tempted to do that would literally be throwing away billions of dollars in federal money and don't have developed enough economies to support themselves even if in coalition with several others.
I feel like you are making a lot of assumptions about the financial system that may or may not be true over the next 26 years i.e. the hegemonic nature of the US dollar, the value of natural resources, unforeseen geopolitical alliances, etc. I feel that a financial crisis of some like will likely play a part in the eventual dissolution of the American empire